The Deep Wealth: Papua New Guinea’s Mining Riches as the Bedrock of 21st-Century Middle-Power Ambition
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is not merely a Pacific island nation—it is a continental-scale mineral province floating in the Ring of Fire. Its crust cradles world-class deposits of gold, copper, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths—metals that power smartphones, electric vehicles, and renewable grids. In 2024 alone, PNG mined USD 12 billion worth of minerals, yet the average citizen sees less than USD 200 of that wealth.
This is the resource curse on steroids—and the greatest untapped geopolitical lever PNG possesses.
At 1-Tok.org, we argue that PNG’s mining sector is not a colonial relic but a strategic springboard. Master it, and PNG can fund its own defence, dictate terms to superpowers, and emerge as the Indo-Pacific’s mineral middle power.
The Scale of the Prize: PNG’s Mining Portfolio
| Mineral | Proven + Probable Reserves | 2024 Production | Global Rank |
| Gold | ~30 million oz (Porgera, Lihir, Wafi-Golpu) | ~1.8 million oz | Top 15 |
| Copper | ~18 million tonnes (Ok Tedi, Panguna legacy, Frieda, Wafi) | ~150,000 tonnes | Top 20 |
| Nickel/Cobalt | ~1.5 million tonnes Ni (Ramu) | ~35,000 tonnes Ni | Top 10 |
| Rare Earths | Early-stage (WNB laterites) | Pilot | Emerging |
| Silver, Molybdenum | By-product | ~2 million oz Ag | — |
Source: PNG Chamber of Resources & Energy (2024), USGS Mineral Yearbook, Company Reports
The Lihir gold mine (Newcrest) is a cash machine: 700,000+ oz/year at AISC <USD 1,000/oz. Porgera (Barrick-Zijin JV) restarts in 2025 with 500,000 oz/year. Wafi-Golpu (Newcrest-Harmony) awaits final permits—potentially USD 15 billion NPV.
The Next Frontier: Four Mega-Projects to 2035
- Wafi-Golpu Gold-Copper (Newcrest-Harmony)
- Reserves: 9 Moz gold, 5 Mt copper
- Capex: USD 5.5 billion
- Status: Special Mining Lease pending 2025; first deep-sea tailings placement (DSTP) with full monitoring
- Geopolitical edge: Supplies 20% of Japan’s annual copper import gap
- Frieda River Copper-Gold (PanAust – Chinese SOE)
- Reserves: 12 Mt copper, 10 Moz gold
- Bonus: Hydropower dam (1 GW) to electrify Sepik
- Status: FEED stage; FID 2027
- Ramu Nickel Expansion + Cobalt Refinery
- Current: 34,000 t Ni, 3,300 t Co
- Plan: Double output + battery-grade cobalt sulphate plant by 2028
- EV angle: Direct supply chain to Tesla/Panasonic
- Woodlark Gold (Geopacific) + Kubalia Nickel Laterite (Nickel 28)
- Smaller but PNG-majority owned—models for national champions
From Ore to Empire: The Middle-Power Playbook
Mining is hard power in mineral form. Here’s the roadmap:
1. Create a PNG Mineral Sovereign Fund
- Mandate 50% of windfall taxes into a ring-fenced fund (like Chile’s copper model)
- Seed capital: USD 2 billion by 2030
- Invest in defence, satellites, and Pacific diplomacy
2. Own the Midstream
- Build PNG Copper Cathode Refinery (Port Moresby) by 2035
- Mandate 30% local smelting (Indonesia-style)
- Export value-added rods, not concentrate
3. Lead the Critical Minerals Club
- Form a Pacific Critical Minerals Alliance (PNG, Fiji, Solomon Islands)
- Negotiate as a bloc with Australia, Japan, EU
- Secure offtake + tech transfer for cobalt, nickel, rare earths
4. Green Mining = Global Licence
- Zero-carbon mines via Frieda hydro + solar
- Tailings-to-building materials R&D (with James Cook University)
- Biodiversity offsets: 1:1 reforestation + marine sanctuaries
The Roadblocks—and How to Clear Them
| Challenge | Reality | Solution |
| Landowner Impasse | 97% customary land; Porgera shut 2020–2023 over benefit split | Pre-development equity trusts; 10% free carry for landowners |
| Environmental Legacy | Ok Tedi, Panguna tailings disasters | Independent ESG Oversight Board; real-time water monitoring |
| Fiscal Leakage | Tax holidays, transfer pricing | Unitary taxation + public beneficial ownership register |
| Skills Gap | <20% national workforce in senior roles | PNG Mining Academy (Mt Hagen + Misima); 50% local hiring by 2030 |
A Call to Action: Dig Deeper, Rise Higher
The world is in a mineral supercycle. PNG holds the geology, the geography, and the sovereignty to shape it.
But ore without ownership is plunder.
1-Tok.org demands:
- A National Mining Master Plan 2040 with middle-power KPIs
- 40% of mining revenue to health, education, rural roads
- PNG-owned smelter and refinery by 2035
- National Geological Service to map the next Wafi-Golpu
Join the Movement
PNG’s mines are not holes in the ground—they are foundations of the future.
Join our LinkedIn Group to stay upto date with our Mining for Middle-Power Briefs and Facebook group to engage with others.
Because a nation that controls its depths can one day command its destiny.