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PNG As A Middle Power 

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is rapidly emerging as a Middle Power in the Indo-Pacific, leveraging its vast natural wealth, its position at the crossroads of ASEAN and the Pacific Islands, and a renewed diplomatic assertiveness within forums such as the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). As global powers compete for influence across the Pacific, the 21st century may well be remembered as the century when PNG transformed from peripheral to pivotal.​

Strategic and Geopolitical Position

PNG’s unique location — straddling the maritime and land corridor linking Southeast Asia and the Pacific — positions it as the natural bridge between the ASEAN bloc and the Pacific community. Indonesia has spearheaded a campaign to integrate PNG into ASEAN, recognizing the shared border and mutual economic interests that make its inclusion geopolitically logical. As the largest and most populous Pacific Island nation, PNG is becoming an indispensable regional actor in security and trade diplomacy. Within the Pacific Islands Forum, PNG’s economic scale allows it to anchor regional priorities while maintaining strong economic relationships with East Asia, particularly China and Japan.​

Economic Growth and Emerging Wealth

PNG’s economy is now among the fastest growing in the Pacific, with the World Bank projecting 4.7% growth in 2025, bolstered by strong gold, copper, and agricultural performance. Resource extraction contributes nearly 27% of GDP, drawing comparisons to resource-intensive nations such as Saudi Arabia, though PNG’s challenge remains converting this wealth into inclusive prosperity. The government’s “Vision 2050” strategy is steering diversification through Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to attract foreign direct investment and foster manufacturing capacity.​

The infrastructure push — supported by international partners such as the Asian Development Bank and JICA — aims to electrify and digitize the country, improving energy access and connectivity to sustain inclusive growth.​​

Challenges to Middle Power Status

Despite its promise, three key structural obstacles stand in the way of PNG fully realizing its potential as a Middle Power:

Corruption and Governance

Although agencies like the National Anti-Corruption Agency and the Ombudsman Commission exist, implementation and enforcement remain weak due to under-resourced policing and deeply entrenched patronage networks. 

However political misconduct and opaque procurement systems might not be coupled investor confidence as much as is touted.  A more pragmatic view would tie corruption to low trust and as a symptom of poverty rather than its cause.

Towards A More Pragmatic View Of Corruption

Wealth Distribution and Inequality

PNG suffers one of the highest levels of income inequality in the region. Around 94% of the poor live in rural areas, with disparities driven by unequal access to education, gender inequality, and uneven development in extractive industries. Bridging this rural–urban divide is essential for maintaining social cohesion and legitimacy in PNG’s growth narrative.

Where Does The Money Go?

Foreign Investment and Expertise

 While PNG is opening its economy through FDI reforms and SEZ establishment, the country still ranks low on the Index of Economic Freedom (148th), reflecting bureaucratic barriers and regulatory uncertainty. To emulate the success of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and ASEAN states, PNG will require a sustained influx of foreign expertise, infrastructure partnerships, and transparent investment environments.

The Case For Deregulation

The Outlook: Making the 21st Century PNG’s Century

Papua New Guinea’s ascent as an emergent Middle Power will hinge on its ability to translate wealth into human capital, convert strategic geography into influence, and project regional leadership through multilateral diplomacy. If it can overcome its governance and distributional challenges — while fostering openness to global investment and professional expertise — PNG stands poised to become the economic and strategic epicenter of the Pacific.

Just as resource-rich states in the Gulf and ASEAN leveraged openness and expert collaboration to achieve prosperity, PNG’s window of opportunity lies in doing the same: aligning resource strength with progressive governance and inclusive growth. The 21st century, increasingly defined by the Indo-Pacific’s rise, may indeed become Papua New Guinea’s century — a story of transformation from frontier to fulcrum of Pacific power.

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